You might not know where Central African Republic is, it is one of the least known countries in Africa. More prominence on the global diplomatic arena - perhaps, well known by its chronic instability.
A brief background
The Central African Republic’s {CAR} post-colonial period has been dominated by political conflicts. After the disastrous rule of the self-declared emperor Jean-Bedel Bokassa (1921-1996); the country has endured numerous attempts at change, unrest, and coups d’état. In 1992 president André Kolingba - a Yakoma who originally came to power via a coup - relatively liberalized the political process and was then soundly defeated at the polls by Ange-Félix Patassé in 1996.
Patassé’s ethnic group, the Kaba (a sub-group of the Sara ethnic), hails from the northern part of the country. In 1996-97, three army mutinies threatened the Patassé regime, culminating in the Bangui Agreements, which aimed to resolve widespread social and economic grievances. The agreement was to be enforced by the deployment of the Inter-African Mission to Monitor the Bangui Agreements (MISAB), which was followed by the United Nations Mission in the CAR (MINURCA).
Since then, a number of peace agreements have been signed to resolve the conflicts, the most important agreement was the Global Peace Accord - signed in Libreville, Gabon on 21 June 2008. It was first signed by the ARPD, UFDR, and FDPC groups. The agreement granted amnesty for any acts perpetrated against the state prior to the agreement, and called for a disarmament and demobilization process to reintegrate former rebels into society and the regular CAR armed forces.
Other rebel groups signed on to the agreement later, or signed similar agreements with the government (e.g. UFR on 15 December 2008). The only major group not to sign an agreement at the time was the CPJP, which continued its activities and signed a peace agreement with the government on 25 August 2012.
Despite that, the CPJP and UFDR continued to fight over control of artisanal diamond fields in western CAR, especially around Bria. In April the CPJP announced that it was ready to end fighting, but made the initiation of peace talks conditional on a clarification by the government of the status of former CPJP head Charles Massi, who had been missing and presumed to have been killed in a government prison. After intensified government and international mediation efforts, the CPJP signed a ceasefire with the government on June 12. Violence soon resumed and more than 50 deaths were reported in September 2011. On 8 October the CPJP and the UFDR - aligned with the government - signed a peace agreement in Bangui, calling for the demilitarization of CAR’s Bria region.
Moreover, conflict in the Central African Republic intensified in 2012 when disparate Muslim groups in the country unified under the banner of the Séléka movement. Angered by the exclusionary rule of President Francois Bozize's administration — a member of the Gbaya ethnic who originally came to power via a coup — Séléka militias overthrew him despite his pleas for French help. Bozize's downfall left a power vacuum that the Séléka movement tried to fill by appointing Michel Djotodia as president. – A new fragile regime that had been well-coordinated and led by the strongest man within Séléka group, discreet as well as mysterious – Mr. Noureddine Adam Bréma.
Consequently, large-scale sectarian violence broke out as Christians in the country formed their own militias, named - the Anti-Balaka - and attacked Muslim civilians in Bangui and some other provinces in the country. Both of the Séléka and Anti-Balaka fighters — Christian and Muslim in names, but often animists — As a result; more than 1.000,000 Muslim civilians fled the capital for the country's Northern provinces and to Chad and Cameroon in 2013.
The Sant’ Egidio peace agreement
The last peace accord in the history of CAR was on June 19, 2017, in Italy. CAR’s government and more than a dozen armed groups signed a peace deal mediated in Rome by the Catholic Community of Sant’ Egidio, briefly raised hopes of peace or at least a reduction in violence. The agreement, signed by representatives of the numerous political-military groups present in the country and by President Touadéra’s envoys- revolves around three main points. The points deal with the political situation, with security and with economic, humanitarian and social issues. In the first point, in addition to the ceasefire under the control of the international community, they reaffirm the will to respect the integrity of the national territory, the representativeness and the recognition of all political-military groups for the reconstruction of the country, the respect for the results of the 2016 presidential and legislative elections and, more generally, the work to build “a dynamic of reconciliation”. However, those hopes were seemingly dashed the following day, when heavy fighting resumed in the town of Bria and some other towns in the northeast of the country between members of Christian Anti-Balaka militias and Muslim ex-Séléka fighters.
It seems to be obvious that the idea of “getting an agreement and the war would end” has just become an illusion. Perhaps, just like me and many observers around the globe, you’ve been wondering why the United Nations, the United States, France, Italy and others so often fail to implement the peace treaties they help others negotiate, in CAR particularly.
Peace Agreements could end the Civil War
In an exclusive interview with Martin Ziguélé, a widely respected Central African politician and economist, successful former prime minister, argued that Peace Agreements could be a great step towards the end of the civil war in CAR if each party -- central government and the armed groups - show a sincere and real commitment to end violence and work for a real peace. The Peace Agreements need a solid follow-up by a mature committee.
Perhaps the most significant reason for the recent escalation of violence resides within president Faustin-Archange Touadéra's government. The new president, who was Bozizé's prime minister from 2008 to 2013, has relied heavily on former Bozizé ministers to form his new government and security apparatus, including to reform the security services and to lead a program designed to bring ex-militants back into the government. Touadéra's reliance on former Bozizé figures is likely driving the recent spate of violence, as militants react to what they see as a return to the status quo that they overturned in 2013. That, along with the perennial weakness of the CAR's state, will continue to provide a governance vacuum for militant groups to exploit. And probably will lead to another coups d’état in the near future.
Marie-Reine Hassen, a widely respected Central African economist, successful former minister and ambassador of CAR, doesn’t believe in peace agreements in CAR at all. She explained that those forums, gatherings, summits, peace conferences, all sorts of assemblies and meetings have given no result, as none of the many peace agreements have succeeded. She seems to believe that impunity is behind the CAR crisis. Arguing that human rights violations are being committed everyday all over the 86 regions of the country, even in the capital city Bangui. The rebel groups have been committing crimes with total impunity, knowing that they will never be prosecuted. Most of the serious human rights violations constitute war crimes, but national and international justices have been incapable of charging and judging those who committed these abuses.
The state had been totally collapsed. Therefore, impunity has been the rule In CAR, and lots of amnesties usually reinforce this evident impunity. This is why none of the many peace agreements signed in the past with the rebel leaders have succeeded. No dialogue has ever brought any peace. Negotiations were never the solution. Now the situation has worsened as the new government is completely unable to control the territory and ensure public order and security.
Amnesty does not mean impunity
According to Hassen, the only things that could calm the situation down and in order to reach a win-win peace accord in CAR; are the restoration of the rule of law and the end of impunity. The transitional government was supposed to restore order and security, to disarm and calm the various armed groups, to protect the population and start putting the country together while it was falling apart. Unfortunately it did not have the capacity, the experience, and the authority. It largely demonstrated its inability to do the job, and the situation kept getting worse every day. Catherine Samba-Panza heading the transition did not bring any improvement to the country’s drama. The hostility and resentment between the multiple groups increased. Tensions constantly swelled. Inter-ethnic cleavages kept deepening. Armed groups fragmented, multiplied, and became increasingly criminalized. Hence, the transitional government was a fiasco, and the situation became totally unmanageable. The international community should have ended the mandate of the transitional institutions after one year, and replace them by new transitional teams, with more professional people and a real strategy. However, and without significant improvements in security, dialogue and reconciliation, the country was not capable of managing good elections.
In this context, Hassen argues that a rush for elections was too dangerous. It was certainly going to exacerbate inter communal tensions and increase the risk of further mass atrocity crimes. However, that was not an evidence for the decision makers. But a race for election was organized. As expected - adding fuel to the fire - its aftermath has become explosive. So the surge of violence that has been going on for months is not surprising.
“I think there are many factors driving the spike in violence in 2017: the first one is economic and financial reason. The leaders of armed groups are looking to control areas of economic interests- mining sites and cattle breeding areas- in order to feed their activities. The struggle for this control has opposed armed groups between them for many months with collateral victims among civilians.” Mr. Ziguélé said
Many studies say that success of any national or regional peacekeeping, peace agreement, and peace enforcement depends heavily on physical capacity and resources of mediating body. Hence, the current conflict dynamic differs from pas periods of heavy fighting in the history of CAR; due to insufficient investment in the negotiation process in terms of time, funding, scheduling, and finalization, among others. Perhaps, an apology is demanded but not reciprocated. Not only; but movement forward in the peace process is often blocked by the unspoken demand for an apology. The CAR crisis is unique and very complicated, there are many forms and unspoken demands among the warring groups of CAR, and I simply think that we must be able to recognize them when they come to the negotiations table.
Hassen argues that sectarian motivations are very apparent at the moment. Hatred of the Séléka has degenerated into anger at all Muslims. The Christian Anti-Balaka started doing as the Séléka had done - they attacked Muslim civilians and communities, hate swelled in all hearts. The current crisis is the most destructive in the history of the CAR. The situation has deteriorated considerably and has become more complex. Violence has been spreading even in the previously spared areas. The Séléka armed group that overthrew Bozizé fractured into different armed bands scattered all over the country without any disarmament. The Anti-Balaka groups also have multiplied. Both of the Séléka and Anti-Balaka groups are carrying out equally vicious attacks, fighting has also increased in the central and eastern provinces of the country. Foreign interventions have intensified the crisis. The main problem remains the presence of armed militias coming from abroad; operating in CAR. The CAR is de facto divided, lot of attacks have also been carried out against UN peacekeepers and humanitarian workers, worsening the crisis. Unfortunately, the drama does not draw the world’s attention any more.
Moreover, and in order to get the best solutions to end the chronic violence in CAR; perhaps, we should consider a peace process to include those activities, parties and mechanisms that stem from the negotiated settlement, that are related to the overarching objective of peace building, and that operate at both societal and institutional levels for the duration of the period when local and international actors consider themselves to be involved in a peace-building process.
In this context, Hassen believes that today the CAR needs a real strategy to resolve this never-ending conflict. That the best chance to do so is to install a good political government - a small government led by professional, operational and independent people with expertise skills and probity, capable of restoring law and order. This fully mobilized college would prioritize the main issues, develop and implement a good conflict resolution strategy, disarm and neutralize all armed groups and communities, protect civilians, put an end to impunity, restore a strong institution of Justice, set up foundations of an effective administration system, restore the State authority, rebuild a professional National Army, intensify the efforts towards a reconciliation process through the regional development and the resettlement of displaced persons and refugees. Emergency actions should be taken, to protect civilians and end impunity. The victims of rebels and army atrocities deserve justice, and ending impunity by state security forces is an essential component of reducing and stopping, the cycle of violence in this country. She strongly believes that prosecutions for the worst crimes committed in the country are the best chance to break these long-standing cycles of impunity. And the international community should help by making sure that atrocities are independently and impartially investigated, so that individual perpetrators are held accountable for their crimes.
No national dialogue means no place for the international community
Bilal Almou-Azzine, a Séléka fighter in CAR’s Bria region, argued that there is no place for the international community if there are no national dialogues, - or rather; if Séléka’s demands won’t be taken seriously like those of past regimes that have deceived Séléka... To put an end to the violence; president Touadéra must be thoughtful to avoid the worst and accept a national dialogue with all the actors of this conflict. “It is necessary that all the sons and daughters of the CAR to gather around a round-table to discuss and forgive each other. By doing so - we will find a definitive solution to put an end to this crisis that is tearing us apart,” Almou-Azzine added.
“Since we have now a peace agreement, it is important and urgent to set up a following committee to work on disarmament, demobilization, rehabilitation, reintegration {DDRR} process very concretely, and for an effective cease fire,” Mr. Ziguélé said.
On the other hand, and while the international community has been engaged in peace processes in CAR, however, peace processes often do not establish peace or even basic levels of security and stability in the country. Despite that; it is unlikely that the international community will stop attempting to peacefully resolve conflicts between warring intrastate groups given the rise of norms around human rights.
Mr. Ziguélé thinks that international actors have to play a great role on peace agreements, beside African and regional actors. CAR is a member country of the United Nations, and the therefore, the country has to get support of any country or international organization which is ready to help CAR’s instability.
It seems to be obvious that Mrs. Hassen agrees to disagree with Mr. Ziguélé as she doesn’t believe in peace agreements in CAR at all. She criticized him by saying that there is a need to stop pursuing a strategy that is not addressing the critical challenges of the country. To start with; in 2013 the country should have asked for fighters contingent of at least 7 000 gunmen to disarm by force all the armed groups, to secure not only the capital city Bangui, but also the whole country. Instead, they were sent peacekeeping troops while there is no peace to keep. The United Nations peacekeeping mission is to no avail if it’s not accompanied by a good national political solution. The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) has maintained a peacekeeping force since 2008, MICOPAX, but it was not capable of preventing the disaster. The African Union doesn’t have enough men deployed and enough resource to do its job. The International Community was incapable of grasping the reality of the situation in CAR.
According to Hassen; the fact is despite the BINUCA, the MICOPAX, the French presence, later the MISCA and the numerous United Nations resolutions; the CAR collapsed and until today remains in a deep process of disintegration. All those missions could not provide protection for civilians from mass atrocity violence. Peacekeepers are powerless and have even become a target. Regional actors were not helpful. Both Chad and Sudan are said to have supported Séléka. Chadian troops within MICOPAX were responsible for terrible abuses against civilians. The mediation and peace talks conducted by Congolese President Denis Sassou Nguesso made the conflict worse instead of calming it. Other regional actors did not care about the UN Security Council’s sanction against Noureddine Adam or François Bozize. “So I think that the actions of some African states had rather negative consequences for peacekeeping efforts in CAR.” Hassen added.
“Each organization has a role to play for peace. This war is also a war of misery, so IFI has also a role to play for economic recovery by giving jobs to the young demobilized fighters. We cannot compare their role to the role of UN MINUSCA which is peacekeeping,” Mr. Ziguélé stressed.
According to Hassen; it is time for the international decision makers and UN agencies to reassess the situation and adjust their policy to the reality on the ground. CAR needs a real cooperation between the country, regional and international organizations. Most important; the main responsible to protect populations from mass atrocity crimes is the government of the CAR. Above all, the country needs a new type of governance, because in CAR; government officials are more invested in promoting their own interests than good governance or human development. The successive never feel accountable for the lives and the wellness of their population. This undermines prospects for political unity and meaningful state building. To solve the problem in CAR; the national actors should concentrate on solving the fundamental illness of the country. We should confront the factors that led to the collapse of the country; such as the lack of strong state structures, predatory governance, lack of true leadership, and the neglect of all the regions.
“As we all know that the IMF, World Bank etc… are financial partners in this world. I deeply believe that they have the capability to resolve all revolves around money. So, these international institutions are very important in peace treaties,” Almou-Azzine said.
“Financial organizations like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are not needed for implementation of peace agreements, but rather for bringing support for recovery and development, starting with support for basic social services. I believe they should address some of the main roots of the instability, like they did when they helped prevent the state from collapsing by ensuring the payment of civil servant salaries during the three-year transition that followed the 2013 coup. They promoted emergency projects, cash-for-work programs and post-crisis recovery projects. The World Bank, through its “LONDO” (Stand Up) project, facilitated peace building and stabilization efforts by giving short-term employment to many men and women. Emergency infrastructure rehabilitation projects are also helping the government to show improvement in the lives of people, and thus trying to bring back social and political stability in the country,” Hassen said.
Reasons behind the last Civil War
Mr. Ziguélé argues that strong measures should be taken quickly towards implementation of the DDRR; a link has to be built between DDRR and the Security Sector Reform concretely to offer credible perspectives for both; Séléka and Anti-Balaka fighters in order to leave the armed groups.
Hassen also thinks that CAR crisis is primarily a security crisis, but it was triggered by a deep economic crisis due to the total decay of the State. The recent conflict shattered the little remains of that too fragile economy and created a devastating humanitarian crisis.
Many analysts agree that CAR needs a strong government and strong institutions to end its chronic instability, as they believe that only the restoration of rule of law and combating impunity will end violence and civil wars in CAR.
But, on the other hand, both of the Séléka and Anti-Balaka fighters on the ground don't always respect terms and issues over disarmament and reintegration into the national military. War seems to be safer than peace for many of them. They seem to believe that peace emerging from negotiations threatens their power. Hence, they use violence to undermine attempts to achieve it.
Perhaps, just like me and many observers around the globe, you’ve been wondering too; why ethnic differences and communal violence flares up after years of an amazing peaceful coexistence between Christians and Muslims of CAR. And what are the mechanisms to bring real peace agreement and heal the wound, or the manipulation of identity politics can serve political and economic ends.
Almou-Azine explained that CAR’s north population has been marginalized for decades, harassment at all levels of the public administration. “For example, if you need some official paper from the government such as birth certificate; they always consider your religious belonging, and automatically you are sticking a label by telling you that you are not a central African citizen. Hence, they would automatically consider you Chadian or Sudanese. And eventually they will bother you until you give them some money in order to deliver you the paper,” he told me in an interview over the phone.
He continued by saying that the policemen and gendarmes who make road check points also discriminate passengers - if you are Muslim; then you must obligatorily give them money and if you are a Christian you are allowed to pass without paying anything, so he is a Central African more than you who is Muslim. All these kinds of discrimination and injustices that pushed the North population of CAR to hold guns create rebellions; such as the CPJP that was created by the Colonel Charles Massi who was killed in a savage and inhuman manner by François Bozizé. there are also UFDR, CPSK, MLJC etc. all these groups’ leaders are Central Africans and well known by everyone and therefore they began to put pressure on the ex president François Bozizé by threatening his regime, and therefore he was obliged to go to negotiation tables. Several peace agreements were signed. Séléka demands that are the demands of the population of the abandoned region, brought together; all the northern Christians as Muslims in the stroke of chased Bozizé, and was looking for a transitional period in order to find the right person who would be able to develop the CAR. However, the current president Touadéra doesn’t seem to be the right president to bring peace for the country. “The principles of fair treatment and respect need to be applied before going to any negotiations table and signing peace accords,” Almou-Azine added.
Hassen argues that the last elections did not change anything in CAR, the authorities should compensate for the incapacities of the transition teams and prioritize these other issues in their conflict resolution strategy, They should reaffirm Muslims’ equal rights, demonstrate the government’s concern for the whole population, particularly those in the northeast of the CAR, diversify recruitment in the public service, Implement a disarmament policy, lessen the appeal of the militia economy for CAR’s youth by reducing armed groups’ financing abilities.
“My multiple warnings became reality. The urgency is to immediately tackle the roots of instability, to avoid a generalized confrontation. The conditions for the emergence of new rebellions must be stopped. Then, the leaders must implement the structural reforms needed to rebuild the country on new and strong foundations. There is an urgent need to put the right people with the right skills at the right place. I hope President Touadéra will understand that.” Hassen stressed.
Conclusion
Although mediators sometimes do more harm than good as they fail to address the reason for defective cooperation, peace can still be accessible in CAR if it is made desirable. It is also worth reminding that there is no such thing as a “one-ball-fits-all” theory. Many peace experts have argued that peace agreements can still be designed where all parties give their consent. So, if the security dilemma is addressed through a clear, credible and extensive commitment in CAR, by external forces (China, USA and France) that adequately deal with spoilers and power sharing, careful mediation can create a treaty parties involved can agree to. However, this does not automatically mean that all steps taken to peace have come easily and true.
In other words, the peace processes were often manipulated and captured by CAR’s elite interests. Hence, there is a clear need to balance technical lessons with the distinct qualities in the case of CAR conflict. We need to look more broadly at the national, regional, and international processes that provide the background in which the civil war is made, - by this; I mean that regional powers should take place in any peace accord concerning CAR, Particularly Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo and perhaps Sudan as well.
