There is no gainsaying the fact that terrorism is a very complex, constantly evolving phenomenon with varying procedures and targets. It is dangerous to confine the inventiveness of man or of extremists. Terrorism basks on the duality of surprise and near unpredictability. Hindsight tells us that several terrorist incidents could have been pre-empted and frustrated if the security agencies had been able to forecast probable scenarios and left no stone unturned in forestalling such. While this essay is not strictly in the realm of ‘terrorism futures’ - a scientific approach that analyses, discerns or models the probability, modus operandi of terrorism; it is nonetheless aimed at (a) extrapolating plausible scenarios or maneuver that Boko Haram may adopt as the sect re-strategizes in the face of the current onslaught against it and (b) nudging Nigerian military strategists, security agencies and policy makers not to relapse, but rather to be proactive, think the unthinkable and up their game to avert unpleasant surprises or "failure of imagination" as some liken the September 11 terrorist attack where the “dots were not connected” prior to the terrorist incident.
- DON IFEANYICHUKWU OKEREKE, SECURITY ANALYST/CONSULTANT
- Nigeria Watch International
- Posted On
